UrbanCat
UrbanCat · Urban Pulse
The Engine Room · Methodology
Engineering paper · v2025.05.sQ1 · 2026-05-10

The Engine Room

Every score Urban Pulse publishes is reproducible from the inputs and parameters documented below. This page is the single source of truth for the engine — the same registry powers the in-app MetricInfo popovers, the audit reports, and the Sandpit demo. No black boxes, no closed-source heuristics.

Pipeline

From pin → strategic brief

  1. 01Isochrone— Mapbox API · walk / cycle / drive
  2. 02POI extraction— Overpass · OSM cached 30 d
  3. 03Classification— Essentials / Lifestyle / Civic / Mobility · Moreno × 6
  4. 04Scoring— Deterministic indicators (this document)
  5. 05Uncertainty— Per-indicator 95 % band (Poisson · Binomial · Bootstrap)
  6. 06Narrative— LLM-authored, planner-edited, citation-bound
01

Moreno 15-Minute Composite

0–100

Mean accessibility across the six daily-life functions (Living, Working, Supplying, Caring, Learning, Enjoying) reachable within a 15-minute walk. Operationalises Moreno et al. (2021).

Formula

score_c = 100 · (1 − exp(−1.6 · count_c / target_c));   composite = mean(score_c)  for c ∈ {Living…Enjoying}

Parameters

  • target_living6— Residential POIs for full saturation
  • target_working4
  • target_supplying8
  • target_caring5
  • target_learning4
  • target_enjoying10
  • k (decay)1.6— Diminishing-returns curve constant

Inputs

  • Classified POIs inside the isochrone
  • POI → Moreno category map

Uncertainty band — poisson

Each category score is bounded by counting noise on a small POI sample; we report the 95% band derived from a Poisson approximation on the smallest contributing category.

Citations

  1. Moreno, C., Allam, Z., Chabaud, D., Gall, C., & Pratlong, F. (2021). Introducing the “15-Minute City”: Sustainability, Resilience and Place Identity in Future Post-Pandemic Cities. Smart Cities, 4(1), 93–111. link
02

Jacobs Vitality Index

0–100

Composite of Jane Jacobs' four conditions for urban diversity: mixed primary uses, fine-grained block pattern, density, and (proxy for) building age variety via transit frequency.

Formula

Jacobs = 0.35·Diversity + 0.25·Density + 0.20·Grain + 0.20·TransitFreq

Parameters

  • DiversityShannon evenness over Moreno categories × 100
  • Densitymin(1, POIs_per_km² / 200) × 100
  • GrainShannon evenness across 4 spatial quadrants × 100
  • TransitFreqmin(1, transit_nodes / 8) × 100

Inputs

  • Classified POIs
  • Isochrone polygon area

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

We simulate the index under POI omission rates of 10–30% (consistent with OSM completeness studies — Barron 2014, Zhang & Pfoser 2019) and report the resulting 95% band.

Citations

  1. Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House.
  2. Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379–423. link
  3. Barron, C., Neis, P., & Zipf, A. (2014). A Comprehensive Framework for Intrinsic OpenStreetMap Quality Analysis. Transactions in GIS, 18(6), 877–895. link
  4. Zhang, L., & Pfoser, D. (2019). Using OpenStreetMap point-of-interest data to model urban change. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 77, 101368. link
03

Essential-to-Lifestyle Ratio (ELR)

ratio

Weighted ratio of essential daily services (groceries, pharmacies, clinics, schools) to lifestyle amenities (cafés, bars, boutiques). Custom Urban Pulse indicator inspired by Frank et al. (2010) walkability composites and Ewing & Cervero (2010) D-variables.

Formula

ELR = (Σ w_essential + 0.5) / (Σ w_lifestyle + 0.5)

Parameters

  • Laplace prior0.5— Stabilises ratio at low counts
  • Gentrification cutoffELR < 0.55
  • Stagnation cutoffELR > 2.20
  • Service-desert cutoffEssential+Lifestyle POIs < 8

Inputs

  • Classified POIs with bucket and weight

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

1000-iteration bootstrap on the POI list; we report the 2.5–97.5 percentile band on the resulting ratio.

Citations

  1. Frank, L. D., Sallis, J. F., Saelens, B. E., Leary, L., Cain, K., Conway, T. L., & Hess, P. M. (2010). The development of a walkability index: application to the Neighborhood Quality of Life Study. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 44(13), 924–933. link
  2. Ewing, R., & Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis. Journal of the American Planning Association, 76(3), 265–294. link
04

Shannon Land-Use Mix

0–100

Evenness of POIs across the six Moreno categories using Shannon entropy normalised by maximum entropy of present categories. 0 = monoculture, 100 = perfectly mixed.

Formula

E = H / Hmax;  H = −Σ p_i · log2(p_i)

Parameters

  • Categories6 Moreno functions
  • Baselog₂

Inputs

  • Classified POIs

Uncertainty band — poisson

Entropy estimator bias scales with 1/(2·N·ln2); reported as a ±band.

Citations

  1. Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379–423. link
05

SDG 11.2.1 — Convenient transit access

% pop

UN-Habitat indicator: proportion of population with convenient access to public transport. Operationalised here as 100 % when ≥1 stop is within 500 m walk; otherwise linearly degraded by nearest-stop walk minutes (cap at 15 min).

Formula

access = 100 if stops_within_500m ≥ 1, else clamp(100 − ((walk_min−6.25)/8.75)·100, 0, 100)

Parameters

  • Walk threshold500 m ≈ 6.25 min— UN-Habitat 2019 reference
  • Decay floor15 min walk → 0 % access
  • SourcesTransitland v2 → OSM stop_position fallback

Inputs

  • Transit stops in bbox
  • Origin pin

Uncertainty band — binomial

Binomial CI on stop-presence within the buffer; widens when the catalog is sparse (Transitland coverage gaps fall back to OSM, where completeness varies — Barron 2014).

Citations

  1. United Nations (2019). SDG Indicator 11.2.1 — Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport. UN-Habitat Metadata. link
  2. UN-Habitat (2021). SDG 11 Synthesis Report: Cities and Communities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. link
  3. MobilityData (2023). Mobility Database — global GTFS feed registry. mobilitydatabase.org. link
  4. Barron, C., Neis, P., & Zipf, A. (2014). A Comprehensive Framework for Intrinsic OpenStreetMap Quality Analysis. Transactions in GIS, 18(6), 877–895. link
06

SDG 11.7.1 — Open public space share

% area

UN-Habitat indicator: average share of built-up area allocated to open public space. We compute green / open-space area inside the isochrone divided by isochrone area, then score against the conventional 15 % planning benchmark.

Formula

score = clamp((green_area / iso_area) / 0.15 · 100, 0, 100)

Parameters

  • Benchmark15 % open public space (UN-Habitat 2018)
  • OSM tagsleisure∈{park,garden,nature_reserve,playground,pitch,dog_park}, landuse∈{recreation_ground,grass,forest,meadow,village_green}

Inputs

  • OSM park/green polygons (Overpass)
  • Isochrone polygon

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Park polygon detection is sensitive to OSM tagging completeness; we widen the band on small park counts.

Citations

  1. United Nations (2018). SDG Indicator 11.7.1 — Average share of the built-up area of cities that is open space for public use. UN-Habitat Metadata. link
  2. UN-Habitat (2021). SDG 11 Synthesis Report: Cities and Communities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. link
  3. Barron, C., Neis, P., & Zipf, A. (2014). A Comprehensive Framework for Intrinsic OpenStreetMap Quality Analysis. Transactions in GIS, 18(6), 877–895. link
07

Bio-Sync — Species Occurrence Count

species records

Count of distinct species-occurrence records reported to GBIF inside the active area of interest. A v0 proxy for local biodiversity intensity — coarse, sampling-biased toward observer density, but the cheapest cross-comparable signal we can ship before the full Bio-Sync data plane (rasterised heat, GANs, NbS avoided cost) lands.

Formula

count = GBIF.occurrence.search({ geometry: WKT(polygon), limit: 0 }).count

Parameters

  • Endpointhttps://api.gbif.org/v1/occurrence/search
  • Geometry filterWKT POLYGON, lon/lat, CCW outer ring
  • Cache TTL24h via external_data_cache

Inputs

  • Active audit isochrone polygon (or default Lisbon AOI)

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

GBIF coverage varies by country, taxon and observer effort; counts are not population-level abundance. We treat ±25% as the working envelope until we layer normalisation against GBIF country-baselines in Bio-Sync v1.

Citations

  1. GBIF Secretariat (2024). GBIF Occurrence API — global biodiversity occurrence index. Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen. link
08

Annual Value at Stake (€)

€/year

Order-of-magnitude annualized economic value tied to the neighborhood's social and spatial scores. Sums four orthogonal driver flows — active-transport health (WHO HEAT), local retail capture (Litman/Cervero), avoided CO₂ at EEA shadow price, and transit ridership equivalent (UITP/ITF) — each scaled to the audit's effective population.

Formula

value = Σ pop · driver_share(score) · €coef[low|mid|high]   for driver ∈ {health, retail, carbon, transit}

Parameters

  • Health €/resident-yr€40 / €95 / €180— WHO HEAT lo/mid/hi
  • Retail €/resident-yr/+10pt vitality€8 / €18 / €35— Litman / VTPI
  • Carbon tCO₂/resident-yr per +10pt Moreno0.025 / 0.05 / 0.10
  • Carbon shadow price €/tCO₂€60 / €100 / €180— EEA 2023 handbook
  • Transit €/resident-yr€6 / €14 / €28— UITP / ITF
  • Heat €/resident-yr/°C anomaly€2 / €8 / €20— EEA UHI 2022 / WHO Europe heat-health 2021 (Sprint 30)
  • Air €/resident-yr/µg/m³ PM2.5 over WHO€4 / €15 / €40— EEA Air Quality 2023 / WHO AQG 2021 (Sprint 31)
  • Mobility €/resident-yr/pp car-share over SUMP 40%€3 / €12 / €30— INRIX 2024 / EU SUMP 2019 / UITP (Sprint 32)
  • Flood loss multiplier (× modeled €/resident-yr)0.6× / 1.0× / 1.6×— EEA Floods Directive 2024 / JRC Pluvial 2020 / Munich Re NatCat 2023 (Sprint 35)
  • Noise €/resident-yr/dB Lden over WHO 53€2 / €8 / €20— WHO 2018 / EEA 2020 / CNOSSOS-EU 2012 (Sprint 36)
  • Housing €/resident-yr/pp RTI over Eurostat 40%€6 / €22 / €55— Eurostat SILC 2024 / JRC Affordable 2022 / OECD Housing 2023 (Sprint 37)
  • Sensitivity envelope±20% on each driver coefficient

Inputs

  • Effective population
  • Moreno composite
  • Jacobs vitality
  • Transit-frequency proxy
  • Heat-island anomaly (°C)
  • PM2.5 above WHO guideline (µg/m³)
  • Car-mode-share overshoot (pp)
  • Pluvial-flood loss intensity (€/resident-yr)
  • Lden overshoot (dB)
  • Rent-to-income overshoot (pp)

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Bands are coefficient-driven, not site-specific. We report the lo/mid/hi envelope from the published source ranges. Replace coefficients with local elasticities for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2017). Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling — methods and user guide. WHO Europe, Copenhagen. link
  2. Litman, T. (2024). Evaluating Active Transport Benefits and Costs — Walking and cycling impacts on local retail and economic activity. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. link
  3. European Environment Agency (2023). Handbook on the external costs of transport — Version 2023 (CO₂ shadow price). European Commission DG MOVE. link
  4. International Association of Public Transport (UITP) & ITF (2022). The economic value of public transport — global benchmark. UITP Knowledge Brief / ITF Transport Outlook. link
  5. Moreno, C., Allam, Z., Chabaud, D., Gall, C., & Pratlong, F. (2021). Introducing the “15-Minute City”: Sustainability, Resilience and Place Identity in Future Post-Pandemic Cities. Smart Cities, 4(1), 93–111. link
  6. Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House.
  7. European Environment Agency (2022). Urban adaptation in Europe — how cities and towns respond to climate change. EEA Report No 12/2020 (2022 update). link
  8. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2021). Heat and health in the WHO European Region: updated evidence for effective prevention. WHO Europe, Copenhagen. link
  9. European Environment Agency (2023). Air quality in Europe 2023 — health impacts of air pollution. EEA Report 02/2023. link
  10. World Health Organization (2021). WHO global air quality guidelines (PM2.5, PM10, O₃, NO₂, SO₂, CO). WHO, Geneva. link
  11. INRIX (2024). Global Traffic Scorecard 2023 — congestion cost per driver, European cities. INRIX Research. link
  12. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (Rupprecht Consult, ed.) (2019). Guidelines for Developing and Implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (2nd ed.). Eltis · The Urban Mobility Observatory. link
  13. European Environment Agency (2024). Floods Directive — second reporting cycle synthesis (2007/60/EC). EEA Briefing 02/2024. link
  14. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Dottori, F. et al. (2020). Pan-European hyper-resolution pluvial hazard atlas (LISFLOOD-FP, 1-in-10 to 1-in-1000-yr return). JRC Technical Reports / Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. link
  15. Munich Re (2023). NatCatSERVICE — European urban pluvial-flood loss synthesis 2000–2022. Munich Re Research. link
  16. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2018). Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region. WHO Europe. link
  17. European Environment Agency (2020). Environmental noise in Europe — 2020. EEA Report 22/2019. link
  18. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Kephalopoulos, S., Paviotti, M., Anfosso-Lédée, F. (2012). Common Noise Assessment Methods in Europe (CNOSSOS-EU). JRC Reference Reports EUR 25379 EN. link
  19. Eurostat (European Commission) (2024). EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) — Housing cost overburden rate (ilc_lvho07a). Eurostat. link
  20. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Maucorps, A., Römisch, R., Schwab, T., Vujanović, N. (2022). Affordable Housing in Europe — Patterns, drivers and policy responses. JRC Technical Reports EUR 31231 EN. link
  21. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2023). Housing Taxation in OECD Countries — affordability, displacement and tenure security. OECD Tax Policy Studies No. 29. link
09

Intervention Stack — projected uplift

€/year (uplift)

Cumulative annual €-uplift over baseline produced by composing one or more named interventions from the catalog. Each intervention declares additive deltas to Moreno composite, Jacobs vitality, transit-frequency proxy and per-Moreno-category scores; the resulting projected snapshot is fed back through the Value-at-Stake module to produce the uplift band. CapEx and lead-time bands are summed from the catalog entries.

Formula

uplift = Σ V(snapshot ⊕ Δᵢ) − V(snapshot)   where V = computeEconomicImpact, Δᵢ = intervention deltas (additive, clamped to score ranges)

Parameters

  • Catalog size12 named interventions (active mobility, transit, public realm, land use, green infra)
  • Score deltasAdditive points on 0–100 scales; clamped at bounds
  • CapEx bandsPer-unit lo/mid/hi from NACTO / ITDP / C40 / World Bank / EU UMO
  • Lead timeMonths, taken as max across the stack for low/high; mean for central
  • Simple paybackcapex / annual uplift; capped at 99 yrs; band uses opposite extremes

Inputs

  • Baseline planner snapshot
  • Selected intervention IDs

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Uplift band inherits the Value-at-Stake coefficient envelope (±20% per driver). CapEx bands are catalog-grade European mid-2020s; replace with site-specific quotes for tendering work. Score deltas are conservative central estimates from peer-reviewed implementation evidence.

Citations

  1. National Association of City Transportation Officials (2013). Urban Street Design Guide. Island Press / NACTO. link
  2. National Association of City Transportation Officials (2016). Transit Street Design Guide. Island Press / NACTO. link
  3. Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (2014). The BRT Standard. ITDP. link
  4. C40 Cities (2021). Green & Healthy Streets: School Streets case studies. C40 Knowledge Hub. link
  5. C40 Cities (2022). Public space, green infrastructure & cooling — implementation guides. C40 Knowledge Hub. link
  6. World Bank (2021). Cycling Infrastructure Cost Benchmark. World Bank Transport Global Practice. link
  7. European Urban Mobility Observatory (2022). Shared & micro-mobility — deployment costs and outcomes. EU EIT Urban Mobility. link
  8. International Association of Public Transport (UITP) & ITF (2022). The economic value of public transport — global benchmark. UITP Knowledge Brief / ITF Transport Outlook. link
  9. Litman, T. (2024). Evaluating Active Transport Benefits and Costs — Walking and cycling impacts on local retail and economic activity. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. link
10

Urban Heat Island Risk (v0)

°C anomaly

Estimated land-surface-temperature (LST) anomaly above the regional climate baseline, plus the derived tropical-night count and heat-attributable mortality estimate per 100k residents. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on latitude (climate zone), POI density (impervious-surface proxy), Moreno enjoying sub-score (parks/green cooling) and population density. Sprint 30.1 swaps the surrogate for a Copernicus Sentinel-3 SLSTR LST pull cached against the audit isochrone — output shape is preserved.

Formula

anomaly = clamp(zoneBaseline + impervious − cooling + densityIntensifier, 0, 6);   tropicalNights = clamp(zoneFloor + 5·anomaly + max(0, dens−5000)/1500, 0, 90);   deaths/100k = clamp(8·anomaly, 0, 80)

Parameters

  • Zone baseline (°C)Mediterranean 1.5 / Continental 0.8 / Atlantic 0.4 / Nordic 0.1— EEA 2022 Urban Heat Report
  • Tropical-night floor (nights/yr)25 / 8 / 3 / 0— Per-zone floor, EEA reference
  • Impervious liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 50) / 50, 0, 1) × 1.6 °C
  • Cooling discount(enjoying / 100) × 1.0 °C— Parks + green-leisure POIs reachable in 15 min
  • Density intensifier+0.8 °C above 8000/km², −0.3 °C below 2500/km²
  • Mortality coefficient8 attributable deaths / 100k / °C anomaly— WHO Europe heat-health 2021

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • POI density per km²
  • Moreno enjoying sub-score
  • Population density

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±40% of the anomaly) because zone baselines and impervious proxies are not site-calibrated. Tropical-night and mortality bands inherit the anomaly envelope.

Citations

  1. European Environment Agency (2022). Urban adaptation in Europe — how cities and towns respond to climate change. EEA Report No 12/2020 (2022 update). link
  2. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2021). Heat and health in the WHO European Region: updated evidence for effective prevention. WHO Europe, Copenhagen. link
11

Air Quality Risk (v0)

µg/m³ PM2.5

Annual-mean PM2.5 and NO₂ concentration estimate plus the µg/m³ overshoot above the WHO 2021 Air Quality Guidelines (PM2.5 5 µg/m³, NO₂ 10 µg/m³) and the derived PM2.5-attributable mortality estimate per 100k residents. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on latitude (climate zone background), POI density (traffic / activity proxy), Moreno enjoying sub-score (parks/tree-canopy dampening) and population density (canyon trapping). Sprint 31.1 swaps the surrogate for an OpenAQ v3 station pull cross-checked against a Sentinel-5P TROPOMI NO₂ tile, cached against the audit isochrone — output shape preserved.

Formula

pm25 = clamp(zoneBaseline + traffic·6 − green·2 + dens·0.5, 1, 60);   no2 = clamp(zoneBaseline + traffic·10 − green·4 + dens, 1, 90);   pm25AboveWho = max(0, pm25 − 5);   deaths/100k = clamp(10·pm25AboveWho, 0, 120)

Parameters

  • PM2.5 baseline (µg/m³)Mediterranean 14 / Continental 12 / Atlantic 8 / Nordic 5— EEA 2023 Air Quality in Europe
  • NO₂ baseline (µg/m³)Mediterranean 22 / Continental 18 / Atlantic 14 / Nordic 10— EEA 2023 zone-weighted means
  • Traffic liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 50) / 50, 0, 1) × {6 PM2.5, 10 NO₂} µg/m³
  • Green-cover dampening(enjoying / 100) × {2 PM2.5, 4 NO₂} µg/m³— Tree-canopy + park area within reach
  • Density intensifier+3 µg/m³ NO₂ above 8000/km², −1.5 below 2500/km²
  • WHO 2021 AQGPM2.5 5 µg/m³ · NO₂ 10 µg/m³ annual mean
  • Mortality coefficient10 attributable deaths / 100k / µg/m³ PM2.5 above WHO— EEA 2023 derived

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • POI density per km²
  • Moreno enjoying sub-score
  • Population density

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±40% of the overshoot) because zone backgrounds and traffic proxies are not site-calibrated. Mortality bands inherit the overshoot envelope.

Citations

  1. European Environment Agency (2023). Air quality in Europe 2023 — health impacts of air pollution. EEA Report 02/2023. link
  2. World Health Organization (2021). WHO global air quality guidelines (PM2.5, PM10, O₃, NO₂, SO₂, CO). WHO, Geneva. link
12

Mobility Pulse (v0)

% car-share

Modeled modal split (active / transit / car) for an audit catchment plus the percentage-point overshoot of private-car share above the EU SUMP 2019 indicative target (40%) and the derived per-resident car-trips and per-trip congestion delay. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on latitude (climate cycling factor + zone baselines), transit-frequency proxy, Moreno composite + jacobs vitality (active-mode lift), POI density (short-trip generator) and population density (canyon congestion intensifier). Sprint 32.1 swaps the surrogate for a Strava Metro tile pull cross-checked against a GTFS frequency parse, cached against the audit isochrone — output shape preserved.

Formula

transit% = clamp(zoneBaseline + transitLift·12 + dens·0.4, 5, 70);   active% = clamp(zoneBaseline + (morenoLift + poiLift·6)·cyclingFactor + dens·0.6, 8, 80);   car% = clamp(100 − transit% − active%, 5, 90);   overshoot = max(0, car% − 40)

Parameters

  • Active-mode baseline (%)Mediterranean 28 / Continental 32 / Atlantic 30 / Nordic 26— EU SUMP 2019 zone-weighted means
  • Transit baseline (%)Mediterranean 18 / Continental 22 / Atlantic 20 / Nordic 24
  • Cycling climate factorMed 1.00 / Con 1.10 / Atl 0.95 / Nor 0.85— Wet/cold zones lose cycling potential
  • Transit liftclamp((transitFreq − 30) / 70, 0, 1) × 12pp
  • Moreno active liftclamp((moreno − 40) / 60, 0, 1) × 14pp
  • POI short-trip liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 50) / 80, 0, 1) × 6pp × cyclingFactor
  • Density intensifier+4pp above 8000/km², −3pp below 2500/km² (split 0.4 transit / 0.6 active)
  • EU SUMP car target40% private-car share— Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (JRC 2019)
  • Daily trips / resident3.0 (EU urban average)
  • Congestion delay anchorINRIX 2024 — ~1.4 min/trip baseline → ~5 min/trip in canyons

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • Transit-frequency proxy
  • Moreno composite
  • POI density per km²
  • Population density

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±40% on the modal shares) because climate baselines and density elasticities are not household-survey calibrated. Replace with a local Travel Survey or Strava Metro tiles for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. INRIX (2024). Global Traffic Scorecard 2023 — congestion cost per driver, European cities. INRIX Research. link
  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (Rupprecht Consult, ed.) (2019). Guidelines for Developing and Implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (2nd ed.). Eltis · The Urban Mobility Observatory. link
  3. International Association of Public Transport (UITP) & ITF (2022). The economic value of public transport — global benchmark. UITP Knowledge Brief / ITF Transport Outlook. link
13

Streetscape Vision (v0)

score / 5

Public realm quality composite on a 1–5 scale (1 = poor, 5 = exemplary). Three sub-scores — walkability (sidewalk continuity, crossings, traffic-calming proxy), tree canopy (shade, biophilic value, summer comfort) and façade quality (active ground floor, imageability + enclosure proxy from Ewing & Handy 2009). v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on Jacobs vitality, Moreno enjoying sub-score, latitude (canopy growth factor) and POI mix density. Sprint 33.1 swaps the surrogate for a Mapillary v4 image-grid pull (CC-BY-SA, free) classified by Gemini 2.5 Flash vision over a sampled 50-image grid per AOI — output shape preserved.

Formula

walkability = scaleToFive(jacobsLift);   treeCanopy = scaleToFive(enjoyingLift × canopyFactor);   facade = scaleToFive(poisPerKm² / 100);   composite = (walkability + treeCanopy + facade) / 3

Parameters

  • Walkability liftclamp((jacobs − 30) / 70, 0, 1) → 1–5
  • Canopy liftclamp((enjoying − 30) / 70, 0, 1) × canopyFactor → 1–5
  • Canopy climate factorMed 0.85 / Con 1.00 / Atl 1.10 / Nor 0.90— Atlantic & Continental zones grow more canopy at the same green-POI density
  • Façade liftclamp(poisPerKm² / 100, 0, 1) → 1–5— Imageability + enclosure proxy (Ewing & Handy 2009)
  • CompositeSimple average of three sub-scores on 1–5 scale
  • Level thresholds<2.5 poor · <3.7 fair · ≥3.7 good
  • Sampled images0 (v0 surrogate) — 50 per AOI in Sprint 33.1

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • Jacobs vitality
  • Moreno enjoying sub-score
  • POI density per km²

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±1 point on the 1–5 scale) because no street-level imagery is sampled in v0. Replace with a Mapillary + vision-LLM grid pull or a site-walked audit for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House.
  2. Gehl, J. (2010). Cities for People. Island Press, Washington DC. link
  3. Ewing, R., & Handy, S. (2009). Measuring the unmeasurable: urban design qualities related to walkability. Journal of Urban Design, 14(1), 65–84. link
  4. Mapillary (Meta Platforms) (2024). Mapillary v4 API — open street-level imagery (CC-BY-SA). Mapillary developer documentation. link
14

Cross-City Peer Benchmark (v0)

z-distance / similarity %

Ranks the audit AOI against a curated 25-city reference panel on four orthogonal dimensions — Essential:Lifestyle ratio, Moreno 15-minute composite, Jacobs vitality, and population density (log-transformed). Returns per-metric percentile + Hazen rank, the closest archetype, and a top-5 peer cohort sorted by z-score Euclidean distance. Similarity is exp(-distance) × 100 so a 50% similarity corresponds to ~0.69 z-units of separation. v0 panel ships with 25 globally representative cities; Sprint 34.1 swaps it for the Eurostat Urban Audit (~900 EU cities) plus GHSL + Copernicus Urban Atlas morphological signatures, with Gemini text-embeddings selecting the best-evidence comparator.

Formula

z(x) = (x − μ_panel) / σ_panel;  d_ij = √Σ_k (z_ik − z_jk)²;  similarity = round(100·e^−d);  percentile = Hazen plotting position

Parameters

  • Reference panelcity_baselines table (25 cities)— Curated mix across EU, Americas, APAC, Africa for v0 calibration.
  • DimensionsELR · Moreno composite · Jacobs vitality · log10(population density)— Density log-transformed so megacities don't dominate the metric.
  • Distance metricEuclidean in z-score space— Each dimension standardised against panel mean + sd before summation.
  • Similarity decay100 × exp(−distance)— Identical = 100, ~50% at d≈0.69, ~10% at d≈2.3.
  • Percentile ruleHazen (1914) plotting position— (below + 0.5·equal) / N — unbiased for small panels.
  • Top-N peers5— Cohort size shown on /audit + PDF page 24.

Inputs

  • ELR
  • Moreno composite
  • Jacobs vitality
  • Population density

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

v0 distance is fully observable (no sampling noise) but the panel is small (n=25), so peer assignment is sensitive to which cities are seeded. Sprint 34.1 will publish a 95% bootstrap interval on similarity using a 1000-resample Eurostat Urban Audit cohort.

Citations

  1. Eurostat (European Commission) (2024). Urban Audit — city statistics database (~900 European cities). Eurostat. link
  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Pesaresi, M. & Politis, P. (2023). GHS-POP R2023A — Global Human Settlement population grid (multitemporal, 1975-2030). JRC Data Catalogue. link
  3. Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (European Environment Agency) (2018). Urban Atlas 2018 — functional urban area land-cover at 1:10 000. Copernicus. link
  4. Hazen, A. (1914). Storage to be provided in impounding reservoirs for municipal water supply. Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 77, 1539–1640.
15

Flood & Pluvial Risk (v0)

€/resident-yr

Modeled annual-average pluvial-flood loss intensity (€/resident-yr) for the audit catchment, plus the modeled extreme-rainfall intensity (mm/h, 1-in-10-yr return), annual exceedance probability of a damaging event and impervious-surface fraction. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on latitude (climate-zone rainfall baseline), POI density (impervious-surface proxy), Moreno enjoying sub-score (green-infrastructure dampener) and population density (exposed-asset multiplier). Sprint 35.1 swaps the surrogate for a Copernicus EMS pluvial-hazard tile pull cross-checked against JRC LISFLOOD output cached against the audit isochrone — output shape preserved.

Formula

rainfall = baseline · (1 + imperviousLift · 0.25);   AEP% = clamp(5 + imperviousLift · 0.8 − green · 12, 1, 35);   loss€/res = clamp(40 · (0.3 + impervious · 1.2) · density · (1 − green), 8, 280)

Parameters

  • 1-in-10-yr rainfall baseline (mm/h)Mediterranean 38 / Continental 28 / Atlantic 24 / Nordic 18— EEA Floods Directive 2024 zone-weighted means
  • Impervious liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 30) / 90, 0, 1) × 35pp— Anchored on Copernicus Imperviousness HRL 2018 vs OSM POI density
  • Green dampenerclamp((enjoying − 30) / 50, 0, 1) × 0.4 reduction on event loss
  • Density multiplierclamp(0.6 + dens / 12000, 0.6, 1.8)— Exposed-asset scaling per JRC pluvial damage curves
  • Baseline loss anchor€40/resident-yr in moderate urban catchment— Munich Re NatCat 2023 EU urban-flood synthesis
  • Loss multiplier (€-driver)0.6× / 1.0× / 1.6× indirect-loss envelope
  • Level thresholds<€35 low · <€90 medium · ≥€90 high (resident-yr)

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • POI density per km²
  • Moreno enjoying sub-score
  • Population density

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±60% on the loss intensity) because rainfall baselines and impervious proxies are not site-calibrated. Loss bands inherit the indirect-loss envelope. Replace with site-specific drainage modelling (SWMM, InfoWorks ICM) for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. European Environment Agency (2024). Floods Directive — second reporting cycle synthesis (2007/60/EC). EEA Briefing 02/2024. link
  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Dottori, F. et al. (2020). Pan-European hyper-resolution pluvial hazard atlas (LISFLOOD-FP, 1-in-10 to 1-in-1000-yr return). JRC Technical Reports / Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. link
  3. Munich Re (2023). NatCatSERVICE — European urban pluvial-flood loss synthesis 2000–2022. Munich Re Research. link
16

Environmental Noise (v0)

dB Lden

Modeled day-evening-night equivalent sound level (dB Lden, A-weighted) for the audit catchment, plus the modeled night-time level (Lnight), dB above the WHO 2018 road-traffic guideline (53 dB), share of exposed residents highly annoyed (%HA per ISO 1996-1) and attributable premature deaths/100k/yr from chronic IHD + sleep disturbance. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on POI density (traffic + commerce noise generators), population density (urban-canyon facade-reflection lift, CNOSSOS-EU §VI.4), Moreno enjoying sub-score (vegetation dampener) and the transit-frequency proxy (steady infrastructure floor). Sprint 36.1 swaps the surrogate for a CNOSSOS-EU strategic noise-map raster pull from the EEA NOISE viewer cached against the audit isochrone — output shape preserved.

Formula

Lden = clamp(50 + trafficLift + canyonLift + transitLift − greenDampener, 40, 78);   Lnight ≈ Lden − 9;   ldenAboveWho = max(0, Lden − 53);   %HA = clamp((Lden − 50) · 1.8, 0, 55)

Parameters

  • Baseline Lden50 dB— Quiet urban background per WHO 2018 §3.2
  • Traffic liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 30) / 90, 0, 1) × 12 dB— CNOSSOS-EU emission curves vs OSM POI density
  • Canyon liftclamp(dens / 12000, 0, 1) × 5 dB— Facade-reflection per CNOSSOS §VI.4
  • Transit lift(transitFreq / 100) × 3 dB— Steady Lden floor near bus/tram lines
  • Green dampenerclamp((enjoying − 30) / 50, 0, 1) × 3 dB reduction— Mature canopy + park frontage absorption
  • Lnight offsetLden − 9 dB— EEA 2020 mixed-urban catchment median
  • WHO 2018 road-traffic Lden threshold53 dB
  • Cost coefficient (€-driver)€2 / €8 / €20 per resident-yr per dB above WHO
  • Level thresholds<2 dB low · <8 dB medium · ≥8 dB high (over WHO Lden)

Inputs

  • POI density per km²
  • Population density
  • Moreno enjoying sub-score
  • Transit-frequency proxy

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±50% on the Lden overshoot) because emission curves are not site-calibrated and facade geometry is proxied via density. Cost bands inherit the WHO 2018 dose-response envelope. Replace with site-specific acoustic measurement (ISO 1996-2) for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2018). Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region. WHO Europe. link
  2. European Environment Agency (2020). Environmental noise in Europe — 2020. EEA Report 22/2019. link
  3. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Kephalopoulos, S., Paviotti, M., Anfosso-Lédée, F. (2012). Common Noise Assessment Methods in Europe (CNOSSOS-EU). JRC Reference Reports EUR 25379 EN. link
17

Housing Affordability & Displacement Risk (v0)

% rent-to-income

Modeled tenant rent-to-income ratio (%) for the audit catchment, plus the percentage-point overshoot above the Eurostat housing-cost-overburden threshold (40%), share of resident tenants modelled as cost-overburdened (%HCO), affordable-units gap per 1,000 residents (10-yr cohort) and annual involuntary-displacement rate per 100k residents. v0 is a deterministic surrogate keyed on latitude (climate-zone baseline rent-to-income), Moreno composite (amenity premium), POI density (desirability lift), population density (supply-side pressure) and the transit-frequency proxy (TOD premium). Sprint 37.1 swaps the surrogate for a Eurostat SILC NUTS-3 overburden pull cross-checked against the OECD Housing Affordability Database 2024 deciles cached against the audit catchment — output shape preserved.

Formula

RTI% = clamp(baselineRTI + amenityPremium + desirabilityLift + densityPressure + transitPremium, 18, 72);   hcoOvershoot = max(0, RTI − 40);   %HCO = clamp((RTI − 25) · 1.6, 5, 65)

Parameters

  • Baseline tenant RTI (%) by zoneMediterranean 35 / Continental 31 / Atlantic 30 / Nordic 28— Eurostat SILC 2024 ilc_lvho07a zone-weighted medians
  • Amenity premiumclamp((moreno − 30) / 70, 0, 1) × 15pp— JRC Affordable Housing 2022 amenity-rent gradient
  • Desirability liftclamp((poisPerKm² − 30) / 90, 0, 1) × 6pp— Commerce + culture POI density proxy
  • Density pressureclamp(dens / 12000, 0, 1) × 8pp— Eurostat SILC 2024 dense-decile lift over national tenant median
  • Transit premium(transitFreq / 100) × 4pp— UITP 2022 TOD rent gradient
  • Eurostat HCO threshold40% of disposable income on housing (rent + utilities)
  • Cost coefficient (€-driver)€6 / €22 / €55 per resident-yr per pp above HCO
  • Level thresholds<1pp comfortable · <8pp stretched · ≥8pp overburdened (over Eurostat HCO)

Inputs

  • Audit latitude
  • Moreno composite
  • POI density per km²
  • Population density
  • Transit-frequency proxy

Uncertainty band — bootstrap

Surrogate uncertainty is large (±35% on the rent-to-income overshoot) because rent-to-income baselines are not site-calibrated and amenity premiums are proxied via Moreno. Cost bands inherit the JRC Affordability + OECD Housing displacement-cost envelope. Replace with site-specific rent-roll + income microdata for client-grade work.

Citations

  1. Eurostat (European Commission) (2024). EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) — Housing cost overburden rate (ilc_lvho07a). Eurostat. link
  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre — Maucorps, A., Römisch, R., Schwab, T., Vujanović, N. (2022). Affordable Housing in Europe — Patterns, drivers and policy responses. JRC Technical Reports EUR 31231 EN. link
  3. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2023). Housing Taxation in OECD Countries — affordability, displacement and tenure security. OECD Tax Policy Studies No. 29. link
Changelog

Versioned methodology

Snapshots stamp the version they were computed under. A "stale" pill in the portfolio or trend card deep-links here so reviewers can see exactly what changed since.

  1. v2025.05.sQ12026-05-10current

    Heat Island (v0.1) + Air Quality (v0.1) — deterministic surrogates swapped for live NASA POWER climatology (heat) and OpenAQ v3 station nearest-neighbour pull (air), cached against the audit centroid. Both gracefully fall back to the v0 surrogate when the live source is unreachable, returns no coverage, or the cache is cold.

    • Added getLiveHeat server fn — pulls NASA POWER monthly T2M_MAX / T2M_MIN climatology for the audit lat/lng, derives warmest-month LST anomaly + tropical-night count, returns null when the API is down so computeHeatRisk(snap, live?) silently re-runs the v0 surrogate. 30-day cache in external_data_cache keyed by quantised lat/lng.[heat_island]
    • Added getLiveAir server fn — queries OpenAQ v3 /locations within 5 km of the audit centroid, takes the nearest station's most recent PM2.5 + NO₂ annual means, returns {pm25, no2, stationCount, stationDistanceKm, retrievedAt} or null when no station is in range. computeAirQuality(snap, live?) substitutes live values into the same downstream pipeline; level, attributable mortality and the air €-driver re-derive from real concentrations.[air_quality]
    • HeatRiskCard / AirQualityCard surface a 'Live · NASA POWER' / 'Live · OpenAQ v3' provenance pill (Cached · …h after first hit, Estimated when falling back).[heat_island]
    • DataModeToggle on /audit lets staff force-flip between Live and Deterministic for QA — surrogate path is identical to v0, so €-totals on persisted snapshots are unchanged when the toggle is set to Deterministic.[air_quality]
    • Evidence-Based PDF pages 20 (Heat) + 21 (Air) now stamp the live source, retrievedAt, and key measurements (warmest-month T2M_MAX/T2M_MIN, station count + distance, PM2.5/NO₂ annual means) when live data anchors the page; methodology line flips to 'NASA POWER live anchor' / 'OpenAQ v3 live anchor' accordingly.[heat_island]
    • Fallback contract: any live failure (network, parse, zero-coverage, RLS) reverts that single indicator to its v0 deterministic surrogate without polluting the rest of the audit. Confidence breakdown reflects the substitution.[air_quality]
  2. v2025.03.s36_12026-05-09

    Environmental Noise (v0.1) — surrogate Lden / Lnight swapped for live CNOSSOS-EU strategic noise-map sample pulled from the EEA NOISE viewer (END 2017 reporting cycle), cached against the audit isochrone.

    • Added getCnossosNoise server fn — samples the EEA mosaic_roads_day / mosaic_roads_night ImageServer at a 3×3 grid across the audit isochrone, decodes U4 pixel → band-centre dB, returns 90th-percentile Lden / Lnight when ≥30% sample coverage, otherwise null. 90-day cache in external_data_cache keyed by quantised bbox.[noise_pollution]
    • computeNoisePollution(snap, live?) now accepts the live override — when present, real Lden / Lnight drive %HA, attributable mortality, level and the Value-at-Stake noise driver; output shape preserved.[noise_pollution]
    • NoisePollutionCard surfaces a 'Live · EEA' provenance pill; PDF page 26 stamps the source, sample-date and coverage at the top of the page.[noise_pollution]
    • Catchments outside an END-reported agglomeration gracefully fall back to the v0 deterministic surrogate — same shape, downstream untouched.[noise_pollution]
  3. v2025.02.s372026-05-09score-affecting

    Housing Affordability & Displacement Risk (v0) — modeled rent-to-income overshoot above the Eurostat 40% housing-cost-overburden threshold added as 10th €-driver and PDF page 27.

    • Added housing_affordability indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, climate-zone baseline RTI + amenity premium + desirability lift + density pressure + transit premium) — Sprint 37.1 swaps in a Eurostat SILC NUTS-3 + OECD Housing Affordability Database 2024 pull cached against the audit catchment.[housing_affordability]
    • Value at Stake gained a 10th driver (housing) at €6 / €22 / €55 per resident-yr per pp rent-to-income above Eurostat HCO 40% (Eurostat SILC 2024 / JRC Affordable Housing 2022 / OECD Housing 2023).[value_at_stake]
    • HousingAffordabilityCard surfaces verdict, RTI%, %HCO, units gap and displacement risk on /audit.
    • PDF page 27 — Housing Affordability & Displacement Risk — slotted right after Environmental Noise in every layout × variant.
    • Added Eurostat SILC 2024 (ilc_lvho07a) Housing cost overburden rate, JRC 2022 'Affordable Housing in Europe' synthesis and OECD 2023 'Housing Taxation in OECD Countries' to the bibliography.
  4. v2025.01.s362026-05-09score-affecting

    Environmental Noise (v0) — modeled Lden overshoot above the WHO 2018 road-traffic guideline added as 9th €-driver and PDF page 26.

    • Added noise_pollution indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, baseline 50 dB Lden + traffic / canyon / transit lifts − vegetation dampener) — Sprint 36.1 swaps in a CNOSSOS-EU strategic noise-map raster pull from the EEA NOISE viewer cached against the audit isochrone.[noise_pollution]
    • Value at Stake gained a 9th driver (noise) at €2 / €8 / €20 per resident-yr per dB Lden above WHO 53 (WHO 2018 / EEA 2020 / CNOSSOS-EU 2012).[value_at_stake]
    • NoisePollutionCard surfaces verdict, Lden, Lnight, %HA, dB-over-WHO and green dampener on /audit.
    • PDF page 26 — Environmental Noise — slotted right after Flood & Pluvial Risk in every layout × variant.
    • Added WHO 2018 Environmental Noise Guidelines for the European Region, EEA 2020 'Environmental noise in Europe' and CNOSSOS-EU (JRC 2012) common assessment methods to the bibliography.
  5. v2024.12.s352026-05-09score-affecting

    Flood & Pluvial Risk (v0) — modeled annual-average pluvial-flood loss intensity (€/resident-yr) added as 8th €-driver and PDF page 25.

    • Added flood_risk indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, latitude-zoned rainfall baseline + impervious lift + green dampener + density multiplier) — Sprint 35.1 swaps in Copernicus EMS pluvial hazard + JRC LISFLOOD output cached against the audit isochrone.[flood_risk]
    • Value at Stake gained an 8th driver (flood) at 0.6× / 1.0× / 1.6× the modeled €/resident-yr loss intensity (EEA Floods Directive 2024 / JRC Pluvial 2020 / Munich Re NatCat 2023).[value_at_stake]
    • FloodRiskCard surfaces verdict, €/resident-yr loss intensity, annual exceedance probability, impervious fraction and green dampener on /audit.
    • PDF page 25 — Flood & Pluvial Risk — slotted right after Cross-City Benchmark in every layout × variant.
    • Added EEA Floods Directive 2024 reporting cycle synthesis, JRC 2020 pluvial-hazard atlas (LISFLOOD-FP) and Munich Re NatCat 2023 European urban-flood loss data to the bibliography.
  6. v2024.11.s342026-05-09

    Cross-City Peer Benchmark (v0) — top-5 morphological peers from a 25-city z-space panel, surfaced on /audit and PDF page 24.

    • Added peer_benchmark indicator (v0 z-score Euclidean over ELR / Moreno / Jacobs / log-density) — Sprint 34.1 swaps in the Eurostat Urban Audit (~900 EU cities) + GHSL + Copernicus Urban Atlas with Gemini text-embedding similarity.[peer_benchmark]
    • PeerBenchmarkCard now lists top-5 similar peers with z-distance, similarity %, and the dimension that drove the match.
    • PDF page 24 — Cross-City Benchmark — slotted right after Streetscape Vision in every layout × variant.
    • Density is log10-transformed before z-scoring so megacities (Tokyo, Mumbai) no longer dominate the distance metric — archetype assignment is more morphological, less population-anchored.
    • Added Eurostat Urban Audit 2024, GHSL R2023A, Copernicus Urban Atlas 2018 and Hazen (1914) plotting position to the bibliography.
    • Evidence-only layer — no €-driver added; Value-at-Stake totals unchanged. Re-run recommended to populate the new PDF page from existing snapshots.
  7. v2024.10.s332026-05-09

    Streetscape Vision layer (v0) — public realm quality 1–5 composite (walkability + tree canopy + façade) added as evidence sub-score and PDF page 23.

    • Added streetscape_vision indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, latitude-zoned canopy factor) — Sprint 33.1 swaps in Mapillary v4 + Gemini 2.5 Flash vision over a 50-image grid.[streetscape_vision]
    • StreetscapeVisionCard surfaces composite + 3 sub-scores (1–5 dot scale) and verdict on /audit.
    • PDF page 23 — Streetscape Vision — slotted right after Mobility Pulse in every layout × variant.
    • Added Mapillary v4 (CC-BY-SA), Gehl 2010 'Cities for People' and Ewing & Handy 2009 'Measuring the unmeasurable' to the bibliography.
    • Evidence-only layer — no €-driver added; Value-at-Stake totals unchanged.
  8. v2024.09.s322026-05-09score-affecting

    Mobility Pulse layer (v0) — modeled modal split + car-dependency overshoot vs EU SUMP 40% target added as 7th €-driver and PDF page 22.

    • Added mobility_pulse indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, latitude-zoned cycling factor) — Sprint 32.1 swaps in Strava Metro + GTFS frequency parse.[mobility_pulse]
    • Value at Stake gained a 7th driver (mobility) at €3/€12/€30 per resident-yr per pp car-share above EU SUMP 40% target (INRIX 2024 / EU SUMP 2019 / UITP).[value_at_stake]
    • MobilityPulseCard surfaces verdict, modal-split bar, car-trips/resident, congestion delay and SUMP overshoot on /audit.
    • PDF page 22 — Mobility Pulse — slotted right after Air Quality in every layout × variant.
    • Added INRIX 2024 Global Traffic Scorecard + EU SUMP 2019 (JRC) Guidelines to the bibliography.
  9. v2024.08.s312026-05-09score-affecting

    Air Quality layer (v0) — PM2.5/NO₂ overshoot vs WHO AQG + attributable mortality added as 6th €-driver and PDF page 21.

    • Added air_quality indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, latitude-zoned) — Sprint 31.1 swaps in OpenAQ + Sentinel-5P TROPOMI.[air_quality]
    • Value at Stake gained a 6th driver (air) at €4/€15/€40 per resident-yr per µg/m³ PM2.5 above WHO (EEA Air Quality 2023 / WHO AQG 2021).[value_at_stake]
    • AirQualityCard surfaces verdict, PM2.5/NO₂ annual means, WHO overshoot and exposed-population on /audit.
    • PDF page 21 — Air Quality Risk — slotted right after Heat Island in every layout × variant.
    • Added EEA Air Quality in Europe 2023 + WHO 2021 global Air Quality Guidelines to the bibliography.
  10. v2024.07.s302026-05-09score-affecting

    Heat Island layer (v0) — UHI anomaly + tropical-night + heat-attributable mortality estimates added as 5th €-driver and PDF page 20.

    • Added heat_island indicator (v0 deterministic surrogate, latitude-zoned) — Sprint 30.1 swaps in Sentinel-3 SLSTR LST.[heat_island]
    • Value at Stake gained a 5th driver (heat) at €2/€8/€20 per resident-year per °C anomaly (EEA UHI 2022 / WHO Europe 2021).[value_at_stake]
    • HeatRiskCard surfaces verdict, anomaly, tropical nights and exposed-population on /audit.
    • PDF page 20 — Heat Island Risk — slotted right after Interventions in every layout × variant.
    • Added EEA Urban Adaptation 2022 + WHO Europe Heat & Health 2021 to the bibliography.
  11. v2024.06.s292026-05-09

    Spatial diff — interventions now reshape the isochrone; baseline + scenario reach are persisted per snapshot.

    • Added iso.minutesDelta + iso.modeOverride to the intervention catalog (5 entries shifted).[intervention_stack]
    • Audit page re-fetches a scenario isochrone whenever the stack contains an iso-shifting entry.
    • AuditMap overlays baseline (Pulse Teal) vs scenario (Bio-Sync Lime) reach polygons with a legend.
    • SpatialDiffPanel quantifies land gained (km², %) and the contributing interventions.
    • Snapshot ledger now persists interventionStack, scenarioReach, baseline + scenario iso rings, and scenarioAreaKm2.
  12. v2024.05.s242026-05-09

    Defensibility pass — confidence engine, provenance footer, methodology + bibliography appendices baked into every PDF.

    • Added confidence score (0-100) + level surfaced on cover and audit page.[confidence]
    • Stamped audit-id + methodology version on every PDF page footer.
    • Auto-generated methodology + bibliography pages from INDICATORS / CITATIONS.
    • Persisted methodologyVersion + confidence on every snapshot for temporal replay.
    • Confidence-aware narrative tone (HIGH conviction / MEDIUM measured / LOW directional).[value_at_stake]
  13. v2024.04.s232026-04-22

    Temporal axis + portfolio view — €-at-stake re-derives without re-running OSM.

    • Snapshot ledger persists Moreno + Vitality + areaKm2 + population on every analysis row.
    • Portfolio ranks all audits on €-central with low/high band.[value_at_stake]
    • Audit trend card shows ELR / Moreno / Jacobs / € sparklines once ≥2 snapshots exist.
  14. v2024.03.s222026-04-08

    Named intervention catalog — 12 entries with CapEx + lead-time + additive deltas.

    • Intervention stack composes interventions and re-uses Economic Impact for uplift band.[intervention_stack]
    • Suggested starter stack auto-targets the weakest Moreno category.
    • PDF page 17 — Recommended Interventions & Scenario Stack — slotted in every layout.
  15. v2024.02.s212026-03-25score-affecting

    Monetize the verdict — Annual Value at Stake module (4 drivers, ±20% bands).

    • Economic Impact computes WHO HEAT mortality, Litman accident, EEA air-quality and UITP transit drivers.[value_at_stake]
    • Cover-adjacent PDF page 16 surfaces low / central / high band with sensitivity tornado.
  16. v2024.01.s112026-02-14

    Public methodology baseline — Moreno, Jacobs, ELR, Diversity, SDG 11.2.1.

    • Initial INDICATORS + CITATIONS registries published.
    • Engine Room page exposes formulas, parameters, uncertainty bands inline.

Full reference list

  1. Moreno, C., Allam, Z., Chabaud, D., Gall, C., & Pratlong, F. (2021). Introducing the “15-Minute City”: Sustainability, Resilience and Place Identity in Future Post-Pandemic Cities. Smart Cities, 4(1), 93–111. https://doi.org/10.3390/smartcities4010006
  2. Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House.
  3. Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379–423. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x
  4. Frank, L. D., Sallis, J. F., Saelens, B. E., Leary, L., Cain, K., Conway, T. L., & Hess, P. M. (2010). The development of a walkability index: application to the Neighborhood Quality of Life Study. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 44(13), 924–933. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2009.058701
  5. Ewing, R., & Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis. Journal of the American Planning Association, 76(3), 265–294. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766
  6. Barron, C., Neis, P., & Zipf, A. (2014). A Comprehensive Framework for Intrinsic OpenStreetMap Quality Analysis. Transactions in GIS, 18(6), 877–895. https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12073
  7. Zhang, L., & Pfoser, D. (2019). Using OpenStreetMap point-of-interest data to model urban change. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 77, 101368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101368
  8. United Nations (2018). SDG Indicator 11.7.1 — Average share of the built-up area of cities that is open space for public use. UN-Habitat Metadata. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/?Text=&Goal=11&Target=11.7
  9. United Nations (2019). SDG Indicator 11.2.1 — Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport. UN-Habitat Metadata. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/?Text=&Goal=11&Target=11.2
  10. UN-Habitat (2021). SDG 11 Synthesis Report: Cities and Communities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. https://unhabitat.org/sdg-11-synthesis-report-2021
  11. MobilityData (2023). Mobility Database — global GTFS feed registry. mobilitydatabase.org. https://mobilitydatabase.org
  12. Walk Score Inc. (2011). Walk Score Methodology — White paper. walkscore.com/methodology.shtml. https://www.walkscore.com/methodology.shtml
  13. Carr, L. J., Dunsiger, S. I., & Marcus, B. H. (2010). Walk Score™ as a global estimate of neighborhood walkability. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 39(5), 460–463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2010.07.007
  14. Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (2020). People Near Transit (PNT) — Methodology. ITDP / Atlas of Sustainable City Transport. https://www.itdp.org/2016/10/13/people-near-transit/
  15. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2018). Healthy Cities Network — Phase VII implementation framework. WHO Europe. https://www.who.int/europe/groups/who-european-healthy-cities-network
  16. C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (2020). Mayors agenda for a green and just recovery — 15-Minute City. C40 Knowledge Hub. https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/15-minute-cities
  17. GBIF Secretariat (2024). GBIF Occurrence API — global biodiversity occurrence index. Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Copenhagen. https://www.gbif.org/developer/occurrence
  18. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (2017). Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling — methods and user guide. WHO Europe, Copenhagen. https://www.who.int/europe/tools-and-toolkits/health-economic-assessment-tool
  19. Litman, T. (2024). Evaluating Active Transport Benefits and Costs — Walking and cycling impacts on local retail and economic activity. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. https://www.vtpi.org/nmt-tdm.pdf
  20. European Environment Agency (2023). Handbook on the external costs of transport — Version 2023 (CO₂ shadow price). European Commission DG MOVE. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ee-99ba-01aa75ed71a1
  21. International Association of Public Transport (UITP) & ITF (2022). The economic value of public transport — global benchmark. UITP Knowledge Brief / ITF Transport Outlook. https://www.uitp.org/publications/the-economic-and-financial-impact-of-public-transport/
  22. National Association of City Transportation Officials (2013). Urban Street Design Guide. Island Press / NACTO. https://nacto.org/publication/urban-street-design-guide/
  23. National Association of City Transportation Officials (2016). Transit Street Design Guide. Island Press / NACTO. https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/
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Data: OpenStreetMap (ODbL) · Mapbox Isochrone · Transitland · UN-Habitat indicators.See it run · Sandpit